Northern Lights: Public policy and the geography of political attitudes in Britain today
Friday, 27 April 2012
Synopsis
Politics and policy are intimately connected. Understanding what different voters want, and why, is pretty complicated. From day to day politicians and policy makers use conventionally understood terms which reflect their understanding of the electorate.
We think we know what we mean when we talk about parties competing for the “centre ground”, or what the “aspirational working class” is, or the “north-south divide”. But do we? Ideas about the electorate reflect different generations of academic research - including some long defunct ideas. Society is always changing, and with it, so does academic research and polling evidence. This report is an attempt to update our maps.
How should we understand geographical differences and the urban/rural divide? Is there really a north-south divide, and if so why? What are different voters’ policy priorities? How do they think the parties should change?
To answer these questions this project brings together existing opinion research, and uses an extensive polling exercise, regression analysis and qualitative research to try and improve our understanding of public policy, and the geography of political attitudes in Britain today.
Appendix 2 - Focus Group Transcripts
You can also see the slides from the launch event of the report here.
Special thanks go to Andrew Whyte/LongExposures.co.uk for the report's excellent cover image.
Testimonials
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"First of all I’d say congratulations to Neil and to Policy Exchange for what I think is an absolutely fascinating report. I spent ... four or five hours going through some of it yesterday and I felt I’d only just scratched the surface of what is in that report, and I think it’ll be a landmark report actually for a long time to come, people will study it and study it."
Tim Montgomerie - Editor, ConservativeHome
Working-class voters in south more likely to vote Tory than middle-class voters in north: fine @Policy_Exchange study bit.ly/IIhIxb
— Ian Birrell (@ianbirrell) April 30, 2012
Nuggets of interest abound in @Policy_Exchange’s new publication,Northern Lights @AdamDKHarrison bit.ly/J9EvXh
— ProgressOnline (@ProgressOnline) May 18, 2012
Related Staff
Neil O'Brien
Director, 2008-2013
Related Events
Northern Lights: Public policy and the geography of political attitudes in Britain today30 April 2012
Ahead of the local elections, Policy Exchange will be publishing a major piece of research examining the attitudes of voters across Britain towards political leaders, their perception of class, the communities they live in and the policies that affect their everyday lives.
Related News
Our MPs pay a high price for getting elected22 May 2013
Writing in The Times on the lack of respect for MPs among voters, columnist Alice Thomson refers to findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights which found that becoming a politician is increasingly becoming a job for the well off as others can’t afford to stand as a candidate. The report showed that more than 90% of MPs are now graduates coming from business professions, and most risk their own money to become politicians.
Margaret Thatcher's legacy should be a Conservatism For Bolton West17 April 2013
In a piece exploring the legacy of Margaret Thatcher and the challenges facing the Conservative Party, ConservativeHome’s Paul Goodman cites findings from our report Northern Lights showing the Conservative Party must address cost of living issues if it wishes to appeal more to voters in the North.
North and south are worlds apart13 April 2013
Writing in The Financial Times, Janan Ganesh cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights, in a piece exploring ways to tackle the North-South divide. The article also cites former Policy Exchange Director Neil O’Brien’s work on encouraging economic growth in the North, including introducing successful academy chains to improve education and skills.
The Tories try to win friends in the north04 April 2013
The Spectator covers the departure of David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, from Policy Exchange to set up a campaign group to broaden the appeal of the Conservative Party. The article notes David's recent work on why the Tories need to do more to appeal to voters in the North and in urban areas.
The budget. A chance to boost capital spending, cut NICs & freeze fuel duty. And tear a strip off the LibDems18 March 2013
Writing on ConservativeHome, Paul Goodman cites findings from Policy Exchange’s report Northern Lights that the public have what would be seen as right wing attitudes to issues such as benefits and crime, in an article on the upcoming budget.
Are the Conservatives getting through to 'blue collar' voters?31 December 2012
Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, David Skelton, is quoted by BBC News arguing that the Conservative Party needs to do more to appeal to blue-collar voters in the North and the Midlands. David said the Conservatives need to shake off their reputation as the party of the rich and address key issues including reducing the cost of living and tackling unemployment.
David Skelton on BBC Radio 4's PM programme31 December 2012
David Skelton, Deputy Director at Policy Exchange, appeared on BBC Radio 4's PM programme speaking about why the Conservative Party needs to do more to appeal to Northern voters. David said the Tories must focus on blue-collar issues such as reducing the cost of living, job creation, and tackling unemployment.
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The Guardian's Northerner blog includes the appointment of Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien as Special Adviser to George Osborne as one of the Conservatives' moves to appeal to the North.
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The Daily Telegraph's Chris Hope covers Policy Exchange's Director Neil O'Brien's appointment as a Special Adviser to George Osborne, citing Neil's repeated calls for the Conservatives to do more to appeal to urban voters in the North.
George Osborne appoints Neil O'Brien as new adviser and opens door to a more blue collar, northern conservatism30 November 2012
ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie writes praising Chancellor George Osborne's hiring of Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien's, citing Neil's Northern background and the focus of his previous work as being beneficial to help the country out of its current problems.
George Osborne hires head of leading centre-right think tank to push through new Tory agenda30 November 2012
In an piece discussing Policy Exchange's Director Neil O'Brien's appointment as a Special Adviser to George Osborne, The Spectator cites Policy Exchange report Northern Lights as one of the most important pieces of work on the challenges facing the Conservative party.
George Osborne urged to cut cost of living25 November 2012
The Sunday Express cites Policy Exchange's Director of Communications, Nick Faith, urging the government to focus on reducing the cost of living in the upcoming Autumn Statement. Nick said the government should consider increasing fuel duty and abandoning the harmful EU Renewable Energy Directive.
Cameron is right to turn to the fixer19 November 2012
The Financial Times cites findings from Policy Exchange's report Northern Lights on the attitudes of voters across Britain, in an article discussing how strategist Lynton Crosby will help improve the Conservative party’s prospects of winning in the 2015 general election.
David Skelton on the Daily Politics05 October 2012
Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton appears on the Daily Politics setting out what he thinks the Conservatives can do to regain support in the North. David argues that Conservatives will not get a hearing without apologising for the social problems created by previous policies and need to advocate a "compelling blue-collar narrative".
We still don't have enough friends in the North14 September 2012
ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie cites Policy Exchange's report Northern Lights, which argues that Conservatives must appeal to voters in the North if they are to win a majority in the elections. The report shows that Northerners do support key Tory values on crime, immigration, tax and human rights.
The great divide14 September 2012
The Economist cites findings from Policy Exchange's report Northern Lights which show that Conservatives need to focus on voters in the North and the Midlands if they are to secure a win in the elections.
The key to the next election lies in the midlands and northern marginals - especially the north-west29 August 2012
ConservativeHome's Paul Goodman cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights which show that a Conservative election victory will need a greater focus on the concerns of Northern voters.
The next election won’t be won on the runways of Heathrow28 August 2012
ConservativeHome's Paul Goodman examines in detail polling results from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights in a Telegraph article arguing that blue-collar workers in the North and Midlands hold the key to a Conservative victory at the next election.
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Forget the boundaries and focus on urban voters08 August 2012
Policy Exchange Director of Communications Nick Faith argues that the Conservatives need to forget about the boundary review and focus on broadening their appeal to people living within urban areas.
Why Ed is right to speak at “The Big Meeting”16 July 2012
Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton argues that Ed Miliband was right to speak at the Durham Miner’s Gala. PX report Northern Lights highlights the fact that many working class people feel no politician truly represents them and their families and that it is important for leaders to engage with communities as much as possible.
Cameron's welfare speech was timed to help him over Lords reform (on which the Government is in trouble)26 June 2012
ConservativeHome editor Paul Goodman cites polling from Policy Exchange's report Northern Lights which reveals that the public have tough views on immigration, crime, welfare and the ECHR.
Has HS2 run out of steam?22 June 2012
The Guardian's Northerner blog cites the finding from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that a majority of people in the North are unethusiastic about HS2. Director Neil O'Brien is quoted pointing out that this is understandable, as the first tranche of construction on HS2 will only go between London and Birmingham - failing to benefit those in the North at all.
Pump action20 June 2012
The Daily Telegraph cites polling findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights which revealed that cutting the price of petrol was, after cutting energy bills, the most important way people felt politicians could improve life for their families.
HS2 has been quietly dropped – but who is going to tell the Prime Minister?15 June 2012
The Spectator cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that Northerners felt that High Speed 2 is a waste of money by a margin of 53% to 30%.
A firm prediction... HS2 will never happen10 June 2012
ConservativeHome cites polling figures from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that by 53% to 32% Northern voters feel that High Speed 2 is a waste of money.
The low earner Liberal Democrats revisited08 June 2012
Liberal Democrat blogger Mark Pack cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that cost of living issues are of most concern to ordinary voters on Lib Dem Voice.
The Treasury plots a new era of highway robbery 31 May 2012
Telegraph columnist Robert Colvile cites the finding from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that one of the most pressing concerns to the British public is the high price of fuel.
Chris Grayling urges Cameron to find more "EU veto moments" as part of his five point election-winning plan24 May 2012
ConservativeHome cites the findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the cost of fuel and energy are the most important issues to the public, as well as issues like immigration.
Andrew Smith: Labour’s reshuffle is a swing to the left, but it will put more pressure on our areas of weakness21 May 2012
Westminster City Councillor Andrew Smith praises Policy Exchange report Northern Lights on ConservativeHome, citing its research into the geographical and social variations in political and policy attitudes among voters.
Appointing Jon Cruddas was a masterstroke for Labour18 May 2012
David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, argues that the recent selection of Jon Cruddas as head of Labour’s policy review could be a masterstroke for Ed Miliband if he’s able to translate his impressive, but often abstract, thinking into concrete policy. He shows how Cruddas's views are supported by polling findings from our report Northern Lights.
Tory Modernisation Needs To Be Updated, Not Abandoned18 May 2012
Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton argues that the findings of report Northern Lights dictate that if the Conservatives ever wish to form a government on their own they will have to consolidate their modernisation programme as well as focusing on issues that affect everyday people such as the cost of petrol and energy.
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Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien uses ONS data to show that the public/private sector job divide isn’t simply split by North and South but is actually spread more evenly than people assume. He argues that the biggest challenge for the government is to reduce the overall levels of local unemployment, especially outside the South East.
Liam Byrne is right about Labour's pains11 May 2012
Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien shows that polling results from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights back the beliefs of Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Work & Pensions Liam Byrne that voters are angry about welfare dependency and that political parties need to take a stronger line on welfarism.
I'll expose 'soft' judges, vows MP11 May 2012
Shipley MP Philip Davies is quoted by the Keighley News citing polling findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the public want the government to be tougher on crime, welfare dependency and immigration.
The blue sheep of the family10 May 2012
David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, is interviewed by the Northern Echo. He calls for implementation of recommendations on planning policy from report Cities for Growth in Consett, his home town, a system of local pay bargaining and makes the argument from Northern Lights that the Conservatives need to appeal to aspirational working-class voters in the North if they wish to win another election.
Newsnight covers 'Northern Lights'09 May 2012
BBC Newsnight reports findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the most important things the British public feels the government could do to help them would be reducing energy bills and reducing fuel duty.
David Skelton on BBC Radio Leeds07 May 2012
Deputy Director David Skelton appears on BBC Radio Leeds to discuss the recent local elections. Commenting on the low turnout, David points to findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that 81% of people do not believe that politicians understand their concerns.
The beast keeps the Tories in business06 May 2012
Sunday Times columnist Martin Ivens references findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that voters are more interested in politicians dealing with cost of living issues, crime and immigration than constitutional affairs like House of Lords reform.
Time to play the elected mayor blame game04 May 2012
politics.co.uk quote Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton explaining why the campaign in favour of directly elected city mayors failed so badly. They also cite figures from report Northern Lights highlighting the anti-political mood the public is currently in.
Elected mayors could make the North less reliant on Whitehall and Westminster for jobs and growth03 May 2012
David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, argues that the North is poorly understood by the centralised government, bureaucracy and media in London, suggesting that elected mayors would allow the North to provide a strong voice for the North and end the reliance on Whitehall and Westminster for providing jobs.
Why the Conservatives need to resolve our housing problem03 May 2012
Policy Exchange's Director of Communications Nick Faith cites findings from report Northern Lights which show that those who do not own their own home are far less likely to vote Conservative than those who do. He argues that coupled with the current housing crisis and fewer and fewer people able to afford to get on the property ladder, this could cause electoral problems for the Tories.
How do the Conservatives regain the trust of northern England?03 May 2012
Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien is quoted by The Guardian's Northerner blog citing findings from report Northern Lights that the Conservatives could use to appeal to Northern voters.
Neil O'Brien on The View from 22 03 May 2012
Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien talks to The Spectator's James Forsyth on their podcast The View from 22 about our report Northern Lights. Neil highlights the problems for the Conservatives in the urban North and Labour in the rural South and the increasing divide between the public and politicians.
Conservatives across the north are down but not necessarily out03 May 2012
The Guardian's Northerner blog extensively covers findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the urban-rural divide between the Conservatives and Labour than the North-South divide and that there is great sympathy in the North for policies that are seen as inherently Conservative.
A gulf has opened up between politicians and the people02 May 2012
David Skelton, Policy Exchange's Deputy Director, highlights how findings from report Northern Lights show a growing disconnect between the public and politicians and highlights the implications of the report's findings for the Labour party.
New report highlights north-south divide among voters01 May 2012
The BBC's North East political editor extensively covers Policy Exchange report Northern Lights, highlighting many of the report's findings such as the fact that Margaret Thatcher is the second most popular PM in the North (after Tony Blair) and that there is a strong desire for more Northern and working class MPs.
Can elected mayors square the vicious circle? 01 May 2012
Telegraph columnist Robert Colvile refers to the finding from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that there is increasingly an anti-politics attitude among voters, to the extent that voters refuse to believe politicians have kept their promises even when they have demonstrably done so.
What do the voters really want? Tony Blair 01 May 2012
Telegraph columnist Robert Colvile extensively covers Policy Exchange's report and launch event Northern Lights: Public policy and the geography of political attitudes in Britain today.
A dangerous pattern emerges from the mess01 May 2012
Times columnist Rachel Sylvester cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the rural-urban split is at least as significant a voting indicator as the north-south divide and that the Conservatives are seen as a party for the rich.
Tricolour Britain30 April 2012
Spectator Editor Fraser Nelson blogs on Policy Exchange's new report on the public's political and policy views - Northern Lights - highlighting the 10 findings he considers to be the most important. He cites Director Neil O'Brien's observation that Tories do so badly in cities that only two Tory MPs have premiership football teams in their constituency.
David Skelton on BBC Radio Manchester30 April 2012
Policy Exchange Deputy Director David Skelton appears on BBC Radio Manchester to discuss the findings of report Northern Lights which examined the political and policy views of British voters. One of the revelations he makes is that Britain has become much more liberal towards the idea of gay marriage, with the North-East and North-West regions being the most in favour.
How Conservatives might reach the North and address its "party of the rich" challenge30 April 2012
ConservativeHome's Tim Montgomerie provides a detailed summary of findings from Policy Exchange's latest report Northern Lights. The report examined the political and policy preferences of British voters to examine to what extent class and geography play have an effect.
Neil O'Brien on the Today Programme30 April 2012
Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien appears to the Today programme to discuss the findings of latest report Northern Lights. Neil reveals that the main concern by far for British citizens is the cost of living and that their perceptions of their local area are most affected by the local unemployment rate.
Energy bills, fuel duty and tax top voters' concerns 30 April 2012
The Independent covers Policy Exchange's latest report Northern Lights, highlighting the finding that the cost of living is by far the most pressing concern to voters. Director Neil O'Brien is quoted pointing out that neither of the two main political parties are successfully appealing to ordinary people.
Politicians ‘out of touch with ordinary voters’ 30 April 2012
The Yorkshire Post references findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that the cost of living is the main concern of voters, rather than whatever the latest issue is in the Westminster bubble. Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien is quoted stressing the need to address these issues and pointing out that the main political parties are singularly failing to appeal to ordinary working people.
North-South divide over local pay plan30 April 2012
The Northern Echo cites a range of findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights on where Labour and the Conservatives are strongest around the country along with a comparison of Northern-Southern policy views. Director Neil O'Brien is quoted highlighting the fact that the Tories don't have a problem in the North in general so much as they have a problem in Northern cities specifically.
Policy Exchange in Guido Fawkes's Daily Star on Sunday column29 April 2012
Findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights that Tony Blair is a more popular Labour leader than Ed Miliband and that Margaret Thatcher is more popular in the North than any current party leader are referenced by Guido Fawkes in his Daily Star on Sunday column.
David Cameron must make the Conservative party look like the nation29 April 2012
Neil O'Brien, Policy Exchange's Director, cites findings from Northern Lights on the main concerns of British voters and gives a series of policy recommendations - from workfare to energy policy reform - that will resonate most with the British people.
Escaping the Westminster bubble28 April 2012
Policy Exchange Director Neil O'Brien sets out findings from polling figures in our latest report Northern Lights and argues that the key message is there is a complete disconnect between the public and politicians and there is a danger of something nasty filling the vacuum if the major parties fail to reconnect with British voters.
Is there a north-south political divide? New landmark polling report finds it’s not so simple27 April 2012
Is there a north-south divide political divide? A major study into public attitudes by Policy Exchange explores this issue and finds that social differences in England today are as much about town and country as north and south. The poll finds that the Conservative lead among people in the rural south is 42% but Labour’s lead among people in northern cities is 43%. In the rural north the Conservative lead is 10%, while Labour lead in London.
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Nick Faith, Director of Communications at Policy Exchange, sets out the Catch 22 situation that UKIP has put the Conservatives in. UKIP is likely to prevent the Conservatives from winning some key marginals, but tacking to the right to try and head this off in the North West and Midlands will harm the party in the South West. Nick argues that David Cameron's best response would simply be to forget the electoral connotations and focus on leading the country instead.
Why I'm moving on - to help meet the Conservatives' northern challenge04 April 2013
David Skelton, Policy Exchange's outgoing Deputy Director, sets out his plan to set up a new group to broaden the appeal of the Conservative Party. David highlights his plans to reach out to voters in the North and in urban areas, noting the influence of Policy Exchange’s key report Northern Lights on the challenges facing all political parties.
What’s wrong with the Tory party?17 January 2013
David Skelton, Deputy Director at Policy Exchange, sets out what the Conservative Party needs to do to stand a chance of winning a majority at the next election. David cites findings from Policy Exchange report Northern Lights exploring the North-South political divide, arguing that the Tories need to appeal to voters in the North, Midlands and urban areas, as well as to ethnic minorities and ordinary working people.
The great divide29 November 2012
Neil O'Brien, Policy Exchange's Director, discusses the failure to close the North/South divide, arguing that both Westminster politicians and Northern council leaders fail to understand the nature of the problems the North faces. He makes recommendations which would help boost the Northern economy, including welcoming successful academy chains, local pay bargaining and planning reform.
Lynton Crosby's three main priorities when he enters CCHQ22 November 2012
Nick Faith, Head of Communications at Policy Exchange, sets out three main priorities that Lynton Crosby needs to address when he joins the Conservative party's 2015 election campaign. Nick cites findings from Policy Exchange's report Northern Lights which found that the Conservative party lacks support in the North and in urban areas.
How to win in the North. Action on fuel duty, planning, job creation - and an industrial strategy20 November 2012
David Skelton, Deputy Director at Policy Exchange, shows how drastic the decline of the Conservative party has been in the North of England, with the party lacking representation even at a council level in some cities like Liverpool. He cites polling results from Policy Exchange's Northern Lights report which show that the Conservatives must focus on cost of living issues and job creation if they wish to win such areas back.
The Olympics teach us (among other things) that Britain isn't meritocratic enough 09 August 2012
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